Managing Cash Flow Through the Support at Home Transition: A Mid-Tier Provider Lens
In my restructuring work, one truth was constant: organisations rarely fail because of strategy — they fail because they run out of cash.
That lesson applies directly to mid-tier home care providers (those supporting 200–2,000 clients) as we head toward the Support at Home transition on 1 November 2025.
Why Mid-Tier Providers Are Most Exposed
Support at Home brings a funding and operating model reset:
Individualised budgets replace block funding, reducing predictability of inflows.
Consumer-driven payments mean revenue will follow service utilisation and loyalty, not “allocated packages.”
Price transparency rules will compress margins in some categories, while workforce costs escalate.
System, compliance, and workforce investments must be made up-front — before reform day.
For mid-tier providers, this creates a pinched middle: not the scale of national operators, but not the reserves of large church/charity providers either. Cash flow will be the defining pressure point.
Three Cash Flow Disciplines for Mid-Tier Providers
Scenario Forecasting Aligned to New Payment Flows
Annual budgets won’t suffice. Mid-tier providers must forecast around real reform scenarios:
Smooth inflows: clients transition cleanly and hours hold steady.
Delayed inflows: My Aged Care system lags or consumer onboarding delays revenue recognition.
Utilisation volatility: more clients exercise choice to reduce or reallocate hours.
Boards should be asking: what happens to our weekly cash position if inflows drop by 10–15% for two months?
Working Capital Discipline in a Consumer-Led Market
Support at Home makes operational discipline inseparable from cash discipline:
Receivables: billing must be accurate and rapid — errors or delays now directly hit liquidity.
Payables: pressure to pay subcontractors and suppliers promptly will conflict with stretched inflows.
Payroll: workforce is already the largest cost base. Under the new system, rosters will flex more often, requiring sharper payroll-to-revenue matching.
For mid-tier providers without deep reserves, any lag between service delivery and cash inflow will be felt immediately.
Liquidity Buffers to Absorb Transition Shocks
This is where mid-tier providers often stumble. Many operate with thin reserves, making them vulnerable to payment lags and client churn. Now is the time to:
Build contingency reserves or overdraft facilities to manage short-term shocks.
Engage early with banks, community lenders, and impact investors — especially with a clear Support at Home readiness plan.
Stage capital expenditure: prioritise reform-critical upgrades (billing, compliance, workforce systems) over “nice to haves.”
The mid-tier providers who shore up liquidity now will be the ones positioned to consolidate and grow post-2025.
The Mid-Tier Board’s Imperative
For boards of mid-tier organisations, cash flow isn’t just a finance function — it’s a governance duty in reform. Regular review of Support at Home scenario forecasts, liquidity buffers, and payment system readiness should be on every board agenda between now and 2027.
Closing Thought
Support at Home is more than compliance — it’s a survival test for mid-tier providers. For some, it will feel like a storm; for others, it’s the opening to strengthen, merge, or grow.
From my restructuring background, I’ve seen what happens when organisations drift into a transition unprepared. Cash flow discipline is the difference between managing reform as a choice or facing it as a crisis.
Jeremy Curtis
Strategic Reform & Transformation Advisor
Creator — Reform & Resilience Diagnostic & Support at Home Transformation Playbook
📞 0404 683 141 | ✉️ jeremy@jeremycurtisconsulting.com.au | LinkedIn